IMS Releases 2009 Global Pharmaceutical Market Development Forecast

Release date: 2008-11-14

Recently, the US authoritative medical consulting agency IMS released the 2009 global pharmaceutical market development forecast. The forecast said that the growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market in 2009 will be comparable to that of 2008, maintaining a level of 4.5%-5.5%, and market sales will exceed $820 billion.
Forecasts show that in 2009, the world's largest pharmaceutical market due to the impact of continued drug patent expiration, new product launch and economic contraction, the pharmaceutical market growth rate is expected to be only 1% -2%, sales of about 2920 Billion - 2020 billion. As the world's second largest market, Japan is expected to grow at 4%-5%, from $84 billion to $88 billion. The approval of new anticancer drugs, the promotion of disease prevention programs, and the blank period of price cuts by the Japanese government every two years will contribute to its market growth. The Japanese government's efforts to promote generic drugs will only have a milder impact on the Japanese market. The EU's five primary markets, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, are expected to grow at a rate of 3%-4% next year, reaching $162 billion to $172 billion. In Europe, the assessment of health care technology has become more stringent, and the increase in demand for preventive health care, which should have been due to the aging population in the region, has almost disappeared. The payers of health care consumption are reduced in order to control spending, and the government health care budget is also decentralized. As a representative of the emerging pharmaceutical market, China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia will grow by 14%-15% in total, and the market value will reach US$105 billion to US$15 billion.
In addition, the market rate of drugs prescribed by specialists in 2009 was 8%-9%, which is expected to contribute 67% of the total market growth. Among them, the increase of biopharmaceuticals will reach 11%-12%, anti-tumor drugs will reach 15%-16%, and anti-AIDS drugs will reach 13%-14%. In contrast, the growth rate of the basic healthcare drug market is expected to be only 2%-3% due to the loss of patent exclusive rights and the reduction in the number of new drug listings.
Forecasts indicate that the uncertainty of the global economic environment and its possible impact on pharmaceutical demand have put new pressure on the pharmaceutical market. The new pattern of the pharmaceutical market in 2009 will also be reflected in many aspects. For example, the growth of the pharmaceutical market in developed countries will be overshadowed by the growth of the emerging pharmaceutical market. Specialized drugs will play a more important role, and “blockbuster” drugs will continue to lose patents. Protection, medical management institutions and payers of medical expenses have an increasing influence on health care.
IMS is the world's largest pharmaceutical market consulting research firm dedicated to providing pharmaceutical sales data and other critical healthcare information to large healthcare and biopharmaceutical companies worldwide. Founded in 1954, IMS established a combined market research system for the pharmaceutical industry in the early days, and has since expanded its business scope and grown rapidly. ——Shanghai Medical Device Industry Association

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