Supply and demand report neutral empty, beans can focus on short-selling opportunities

In September, due to the increase in demand and corn prices, the US soybeans were in a trend of upward trend. However, the record US soybean production and seasonal factors made its upward pressure gradually increase. In general, the US beans remain in shock. With the introduction of the supply and demand report, the pressure of seasonal callbacks has gradually emerged. The author believes that short-selling opportunities can be concerned.

First, on September 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a report on soybean supply and demand. The report slightly increased exports in 09/10, resulting in a decline in ending stocks of 10 million bushels to 150 million bushels; the report continued to increase 10/11 annual production compared to last month. It was 44.7 bushels per acre and the output was 3.483 billion bushels, which was higher than the average market forecast of 3.406 billion bushels. However, the report continued to increase the export volume of the new year, which led to the end of inventory reduction of 10 million bushels from the previous month to 350 million bushels. The average market forecast is 404 million bushels. At the same time, from the perspective of global soybean supply and demand, global production continued to increase by 1.2 million tons from the previous month, and global usage continued to increase by 1.63 million tons, making the ending stocks down from the previous month.

Secondly, from the latest published growth status, as of September 5, the excellent rate of US soybean planting was 64%, which was unchanged from last week, but lower than the 68% in the same period of last year, and the short-term threat of frost was not great. It is less likely that the yield of soybeans will fall sharply, and the premium for the weather will continue to weaken. In addition, from a seasonal perspective, due to the upcoming US-China soybeans, the supply factor will cause the US soybeans to face a pressure callback, generally forming a seasonal harvest low in September and October.

Again, the early oil mill crushes profits, the oil plant starts normal, according to the current 7700 --- 7800 yuan / ton of four soybean oil, 3150 --- 3200 yuan / ton of soybean meal and imports in July-August Soybean costs 3700-3800 yuan / ton to calculate, crushing profits of oil refineries at 100 yuan / ton or more, which prompted the import demand remains strong, but due to the port of soybean inventory pressure remains, as of September 10, imported soybeans The port inventory was 6.07 million tons, which was an increase of 170,000 tons compared with last month. The import costs of the US beans continued to increase in the future. Under the premise that the inventory has not been effectively digested, import demand will slow down, thereby restraining US soybean prices. .

Finally, with the advent of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the consumption of fats and oils is expected to increase, and the pressure on soybean oil stocks is expected to ease. As of September 10, domestic soybean oil stocks stood at 113-11.16 million tons, of which commercial stocks were 87----900,000 tons and national reserve stocks were 30-32 million tons. However, it is worth noting that the market is cautious about dumping rumors. At present, soybean reserves are about 500--600 million tons, which translates into 90-1.08 million tons of soybean oil, plus 300-32 million tons of reserved soybean oil and 2 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is almost equivalent to one and a half months. The consumption of oil and fat, rapeseed oil last year, the price was 8500 yuan / ton, this year, plus interest and storage costs, it is about 8700-8800 yuan / ton. Therefore, the pressure of dumping reserves will limit the upside, but there is no substantial pressure on stockpiles before the price can reach this level.

Therefore, the external environment will show tightness in the outer zone and weaker domestic goods. The supply and demand report as a whole was neutral to bearish. The seasonal callback pressure gradually emerged, and due to the pressure on port inventory, the import demand will slow down in the future, prompting the price correction of US soybeans. Although the dual section promoted the destocking of soybean oil, the pressure from stockpiling limited the upside. Operationally, investors are advised to focus on short selling near the previous highs.